Announcement on the Adjustment of Export Tax Rebate Policy: Major Changes Businesses Need to Know

On November 15, 2024, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a notice on the adjustment of export tax rebate policies. Starting from December 1, 2024, all export tax rebates for aluminum products will be canceled, involving 24 tax numbers including aluminum plates, aluminum foils, aluminum pipes, aluminum pipe fittings, and some aluminum bars and profiles. The introduction of the new policy reflects the country's firm determination to guide domestic aluminum enterprises towards high-quality development and confidence in China's transformation from a major aluminum industrial country to a strong aluminum industrial country.

The pattern of good supply and demand environment in the global electrolytic aluminum market remains unchanged.

In recent years, the global electrolytic aluminum market has been in a tight supply-demand balance, with an average annual surplus or shortfall of less than 1 million tons; The growth rate of electrolytic aluminum production at home and abroad is basically synchronized with consumption, and there is no extreme gap or rigid excess pressure in the domestic and foreign markets. In this context, although the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products by the government will put some pressure on export volume in the short term, the basic pattern of a good supply and demand environment in the global aluminum market remains unchanged

The production gap in the domestic electrolytic aluminum market still exists.

With the rapid development of the new energy industry and the continuous rise in market demand for green and low-carbon metals, China's electrolytic aluminum market has continued to show a net import pattern in recent years. It is expected that in 2024, China's net import volume of electrolytic aluminum will reach 1.95 million tons, a significant increase of 40% compared to 2023, further expanding the production and demand gap. By 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production may reach 44 million tons. Due to the impact of the cancellation of the export tax rebate for aluminum products, the growth of China's primary aluminum consumption in 2025 will slow down to maintain the estimated level of 45 million tons in 2024, and the domestic market will still need to net import about 1 million tons of primary aluminum to basically achieve supply and demand balance, indicating that the fundamental shortage of domestic electrolytic aluminum production remains unchanged.

The comparative advantage of the overall operating level of domestic aluminum processing remains unchanged.

Although China's aluminum export volume may decline in the short term due to policy impacts, the comparative advantages of China's aluminum processing industry in terms of technology, equipment, management, technological innovation, and product variety remain unchanged. In particular, the comprehensive cost of exported aluminum processed products still has strong competitiveness compared to similar products abroad. Therefore, with the restoration of domestic and foreign price ratios and the application of new technologies and equipment, the comparative advantages of domestic aluminum processing enterprises will once again become apparent, and the high-level export situation of Chinese aluminum products is expected to continue in the future.

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